Even Nasdaq Needs in on the Prediction Market Frenzy

Regardless of controversy and accusations starting from playing to insider buying and selling, prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have surged in reputation lately. Now, even Nasdaq needs to dip its toes into event-based buying and selling.

Nasdaq is in search of approval from the U.S. Securities and Change Fee (SEC) to launch new outcome-based choices tied to main indexes, based on a regulatory filing submitted Monday.

The change plans to roll out what it calls “outcome-related choices” linked to the Nasdaq-100 Index, which tracks the 100 largest non-financial firms listed on the change, together with Apple, Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, and Tesla. Nasdaq can be in search of approval to supply the contracts on the Nasdaq-100 Micro, a smaller index designed for smaller trades.

These binary choices would enable merchants to position yes-or-no bets on particular outcomes, equivalent to,  whether or not the Nasdaq-100 will shut above or under a sure degree by a particular date.

The contracts can be priced between $0.01 and $1, with the value reflecting the market’s estimate of the likelihood of the end result. If the occasion happens, the contract pays out. If it doesn’t, it turns into nugatory.

Nasdaq didn’t instantly reply to a request for remark from Gizmodo.

The transfer comes as prediction markets have grow to be mainstream regardless of intense scrutiny. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have been round since 2018 however actually began gaining consideration after precisely forecasting main occasions such because the outcomes of the 2024 presidential election and 2025 New York Metropolis mayoral race.

Main media establishments are additionally partnering with these marketplaces, lending them extra credibility. CNN teamed up with Kalshi final yr, whereas the Golden Globes partnered with Polymarket earlier this yr. Most lately, the Related Press introduced right this moment that it’s going to present Kalshi with knowledge and race requires national and state elections.

In the meantime, critics of those marketplaces have raised issues over the potential of insider buying and selling, particularly the place bets involving main world occasions are involved, such because the downfall of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro or the U.S. strikes on Iran.

Whereas each firms publicly discourage insider buying and selling, Polymarket brazenly encourages these with distinctive information to leverage their experience available on the market.

“In the event you’re an skilled on a sure subject, Polymarket is your alternative to revenue from buying and selling primarily based in your information, whereas enhancing the market’s accuracy,” the corporate’s user guide says.